More share price misery from Toll

Every chart tells a story, and this one for the Toll brothers share price, tells a tale of misery. If you held the stock between June 2005 and June 2006, you would have lost around two thirds of your investment. If you had bought the share in June 2006, you would have looked good for another six months, but then TOL would have taken you for a ride down to the cleaners. Since Christmas, this stock has suffered.

This blog doesn't give investment advice, it merely comments on the misery and despair that comes with holding stocks like Toll brothers. The company's recent financial statements have been high on misery index. Luxury homes are just not selling like they did back in 2005. Toll's revenues for the second quarter are down 19 percent. Furthermore, Toll now expects to take a second-quarter charge of $90 million to $130 million to cover falling home values across the country.

Here is how chief executive Bob Toll tells it: "Twenty months into this housing downturn, we continue to face difficult conditions in most of our markets," He even got a little poetic; the "lack of buyer confidence may have served to impede the glimmers of a rebound we had started to see in early February".

"Lack of buyer confidence" is an interesting statement from Bob Toll. In what exactly have the buyers lost confidence? House price inflation - that is what the buyer misses. No one believes in house price appreciation. Instead, everyone expects house prices to be lower next year. In fact, buyers are fairly confident about it.

At least Bob is not blaming the subprime debacle for Toll's miserable share performance.