The Mortgage Bankers Association just released quarter 4 data for home payments. It is ugly out there. One in 20 US mortgages are now in delinquency, while 13.4 percent of sub prime borrowers are behind in their payments. The foreclosure rate is now 0.54 percent and rising fast.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors said that a recovery in the nation's housing market is "likely" this year. They confidently predict that the median new-home price should grow 1.7 percent in 2007 and 3 percent next year.

Rising prices, coupled with rising foreclosures and delinquencies; that sounds like a prediction grounded on solid evidence.